BARN TALK
The Unfiltered Voice of Rural America
Weekly Newsletter · Issue #011 · June 10, 2026
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Hey folks, the worst pest in the cattle business just turned up 25 miles from Texas, Brazil is about to flood the global corn market with another record crop, and the cattle on feed report turned the supply math sideways. Eleven issues in and the news cycle keeps finding new ways to test the people who feed this country.
This Week
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Screwworm confirmed 25 miles from the Texas border. Southern ports stay shut.
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Brazil's safrinha corn harvest starts in June with a record 98 million tons projected
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USDA Cattle on Feed posts its first inventory uptick in 18 months
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Argentina cuts grain export taxes again, second time in under a year
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Senate Ag preps a Farm Bill markup. Bipartisan or it doesn't move.
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Screwworm Is 25 Miles From Texas and the Border Stays Shut
USDA confirmed on June 2 that the New World screwworm was found in a five-year-old goat in Coahuila, Mexico. That is the closest confirmed detection of the current outbreak, just 25 miles from the Texas border. Southern ports of entry remain closed to live cattle. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says they are not opening anytime soon.
Why This Matters for Every Cow in the Country
A screwworm outbreak inside the U.S. would kill livestock and strip margin out of the entire industry inside a calving season. Texas economists put the potential damage to that state alone at $1.8 billion. The U.S. herd is already running at the tightest level this country has seen since 1951. Pull Mexican feeders out of the supply chain and packers are fighting harder for what is left. That math runs straight through to the meat counter.
What USDA Is Doing About It
APHIS is dropping 100 million sterile screwworm flies a week along the border to keep the pest from breeding north. The agency just opened a new 52,000 square foot livestock insect research lab in Kerrville, Texas. There were 22 confirmed cases within 100 miles of the U.S. border last week. The plan is to maintain a sterile-insect buffer wide enough to keep the pest from crossing. If it does, the rebuild takes years.
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From the Barn
When the government shuts a border to live cattle, every guy with a feed truck pays attention. If this pest jumps the river you will see beef prices nobody alive has ever seen. The herd is already light, and a screwworm outbreak inside the U.S. would gut it faster than any drought ever could. Keep the border shut.
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Brazil's Record Safrinha Corn Is About to Land in the Global Market
Brazil's second-crop corn, called the safrinha, starts coming off this month and runs through September. CONAB is projecting 98 million metric tons from the safrinha alone, nearly 80% of Brazil's total corn production. That is a record. It lands inside the same summer window U.S. growers are planning to sell into.
Brazil has been chipping away at U.S. corn export share for the better part of a decade. The 2025/26 number puts Brazil's total corn crop near 141 million metric tons. Add a record Argentine soybean crop sitting next to it and South American grain is going to be cheaper at the dock than U.S. grain has been in years.
The Numbers That Matter
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Safrinha projected at roughly 98 million metric tons, about 80% of Brazil's total corn
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Brazil's full 2025/26 corn crop is on track for roughly 141 million metric tons
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Brazilian corn ethanol capacity is projected to roughly double by 2035, eating into their own export pool over time
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What It Means at the Elevator
U.S. corn already trades at a basis disadvantage to Brazilian corn anytime South America is shipping. With another record crop landing inside the same selling window, expect basis to soften further in any region without strong local ethanol or feed demand. The producers in the best position right now are the ones with grain bins paid off and the patience to hold.
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From the Barn
South America planted, harvested, and shipped corn while we were busy arguing about everything else. The market doesn't care about the news cycle. If you're selling new-crop corn into a global market that just added 98 million tons of South American supply, set your floors and don't fall in love with last year's price chart.
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Tork's Market Update
What the numbers mean for you
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This Week's Numbers
Prices as of market close · June 2, 2026 · Courtesy of katsgrain.com
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Corn (Jul '26)
$4.41 /bu
▼ $0.01 on the week
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Soybeans (Jul '26)
$11.65 /bu
▲ $0.04 on the week
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Chicago Wheat (Jul '26)
$6.03 /bu
▼ $0.05 on the week
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Live Cattle (Jun '26)
$247.68 /cwt
▼ $1.33 on the week
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Lean Hogs (Jun '26)
$95.70 /cwt
▲ $0.68 on the week
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Crude Oil (Jul '26)
$93.76 /bbl
▲ $2.07 on the week
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Tork's Picks
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Bitcoin
$69,250 USD
▼ $8,028 on the week
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Tesla (TSLA)
$423.74 /share
▼ $2.27 on the week
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This isn't financial advice. I'm just a farmer with an opinion.
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Tork's Take
Crude back above $93 keeps a floor under your fuel bill into harvest. Cattle futures gave up a buck on profit-taking and the Cattle on Feed report didn't help, but if you've got fed cattle ready to roll you're still sitting in the best window you've seen in twenty years. Beans found a small bid. Wheat is still trying to find a bottom, and Brazil's safrinha is about to put new pressure on corn basis once it starts moving. Bitcoin sliding under $70K shouldn't surprise anybody. The folks calling for a quarter million by July should probably go check the chart.
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Sawyer's Spotlight
The younger generation's take, straight from the barn
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There's a guy I want to put on your radar. His name is John Haskell and he runs a company called Ranch Right LLC. He helps farmers and ranchers actually know what their numbers mean and what to do about them. Dad and I had a conversation with him in the barn that I've been chewing on for a while.
His framing was simple. He says finance is fifth-grade math. Addition, subtraction, a little bit of division. Most operations bleed cash because nobody is actually doing the math, not because the work is too hard. You can feel that on a place from a mile away. Stressed marriages, stressed kids, ground that looks like hell.
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“Most ranches have three to five enterprises. Almost always, one of them is killing the operation. Get rid of the loser, redirect the time and money into the winner, and everything changes.”
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That's the opposite of every diversification pitch you've ever heard. Buffett's line shows up in his work all the time. Diversification is a hedge against ignorance. If you don't know which enterprise is making money and which one is bleeding it, spreading thinner just hides the leak.
John told us about ranchers buying up their neighbors' places with profits from running cattle, not oil money and not a tech windfall. The kind of working farmer the mainstream media says doesn't exist anymore is sitting in his client list. Worth a follow at ranchright.com if you want a different way of thinking about your operation.
If your spreadsheet looks like a guess, hit reply. I want to know what you're tracking and what you wish you knew.
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4 Things That Caught Our Eye This Week
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01
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USDA Cattle on Feed Posts the First Inventory Uptick in 18 Months
The May 23 report showed 11.6 million head on feed as of May 1, up 2% year over year. April placements were up 6%. Marketings came in 10% below last year. The complex took it on the chin and futures dragged lower. More cattle stacking in feedyards while fewer move to slaughter sets up a tighter beef supply on the back end.
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02
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Argentina Cuts Grain Export Taxes Again, Effective June
Milei dropped wheat and barley duties from 7.5% to 5.5% starting this month, the second cut in under a year. Soybean duties step down monthly through 2028 if his coalition holds the legislature. Argentine grain is going to keep getting cheaper at the dock relative to what you're hauling to the elevator. U.S. growers feel that in two places: export basis and any farm-gate price comparison.
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03
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Senate Ag Drops a Farm Bill Draft and a Markup Is Coming
Chairman Boozman is releasing draft text in early June with a committee markup later this month. SNAP cost-sharing is the contested piece. Glyphosate state-label preemption and California's Prop 12 are staying out of the base bill because Boozman needs sixty votes. Bipartisan or it dies.
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04
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Corn Planting Closed Out May at 93% with Conditions at 67% G/E
That's below last year and below the five-year average for the first condition reading. Iowa and Minnesota look strong. Kansas, Texas, and Ohio are showing stress. Watch the next two condition reports because that's the window where the trade decides whether to price in a yield problem.
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Before You Go
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Barn Talk Trivia
Think You Know Your Stuff?
This Week's Question
Which U.S. state leads the country in egg production?
| A Ohio |
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B Iowa |
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| C Indiana |
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D Pennsylvania |
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Did You Know?
More than half of U.S. farmland is operated by someone who doesn't own it. The owner is often a retired farmer, an absentee landlord, or an investment trust. The person actually doing the work pays rent on the bulk of the dirt they farm.
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Barn Talk Word of the Week
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RATION
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The specific mix of feed, supplements, and minerals balanced to meet an animal's daily nutritional needs. A bad ration costs you weight gain. A great ration is the difference between a feedyard that makes money and one that doesn't.
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Eleven issues in and the news cycle keeps finding new things to break. Stay sharp out there, keep an eye on the southern border, and tell us what you want to read more of. Forward this one to a neighbor who needs it.
We'll see you in the barn.
Sawyer & Tork
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