BARN TALK
The Unfiltered Voice of Rural America
Issue #030 · October 21, 2026
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Hey folks, USDA says it is about to pay the biggest farm safety net check on record, and home builders say they are shorter on workers than they were in the 2005 boom. Corn and beans slid on the week, Iowa soybeans are about half as harvested as normal, and a Family Dollar in a town of under 800 locked its doors.
In this issue
| USDA is paying out $13.8 billion in ARC and PLC for 2025 crops, a record |
| 47 percent of builders report worker shortages across the trades |
| Beans lost 30 3/4 cents on the week while crude gained $9.55 |
| Iowa soybeans are 31 percent out against a normal 59 percent |
| A farmhand from Indiana who bet on himself after four careers |
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This Week's Episode
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USDA Just Put A Record $13.8 Billion On The Table For 2025 Crops
Sixteen crops triggered PLC payments for 2025, corn, soybeans and wheat among them.
USDA announced on October 7 that ARC and PLC will generate about $13.8 billion in gross payments for the 2025 crop year. It calls that the largest annual payout since the programs began in the 2014 farm bill, and no crop year since 2015 has come close.
Read the fine print first
That number is gross. A 5.7 percent sequestration cut comes off every payment, and payment limits come off after that. The 2025 limit is $160,000, raised from $125,000 by the new law. For 2025 only, every farm automatically gets whichever of ARC or PLC pays more, whatever it elected.
Why it is so big
Sixteen crops triggered PLC, including corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, peanuts, sorghum and canola. Secretary Rollins credits the Working Families Tax Cuts Act, which raised the reference prices those payments are measured against starting with 2025. AgWeb reports the money should land by the end of October, though USDA has not named a date.
The same law added 30 million base acres that count starting with 2026, after a 3.69 percent proration cut. Enrollment for 2026 is open now.
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From the Barn
A record payout is also a record measure of how far prices sat under the reference price. The market did not pay you for that crop, so the taxpayer is. Take the check, and put it against the operating loan before the new planter.
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Builders Say Worker Shortages Are Worse Than The 2005 Boom, With Far Fewer Homes Going Up
A National Association of Home Builders survey of 415 builders, reported October 16, finds 47 percent short of workers across the nine trades it has tracked since 1996. That was 42 percent in April 2025. It is higher than during the 2004 to 2006 boom, and housing starts then were far higher than now.
By the numbers
| More than half of builders report shortages of framing crews, rough and finished carpenters, masons and concrete crews. |
| 49 percent are short on drywall workers, and 47 percent each on plumbers and electricians. |
| 1.3 million is this year's pace of housing starts, against about 1.8 million in the 2004 to 2006 boom. |
Where the crews went
Builders point to immigration enforcement, with some legal workers staying off job sites for fear of raids, and to data center construction competing for the same skilled hands. A separate industry report from early October puts the wider need at about 1.7 million skilled trades openings a year through 2035.
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From the Barn
Fewer houses are going up and builders still cannot find the hands. If you have a kid who likes running equipment or wiring a panel, this list is your sales pitch. Somebody who can do that work will not wait long for a job.
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This week's numbers
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Corn (Dec '26)
$4.74 1/4 /bu
▼ $0.05 1/2 on the week
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Soybeans (Nov '26)
$12.61 1/4 /bu
▼ $0.30 3/4 on the week
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Chicago Wheat (Dec '26)
$6.60 1/2 /bu
▼ $0.10 1/2 on the week
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Live Cattle (Dec '26)
$228.35 /cwt
▲ $1.30 on the week
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Lean Hogs (Dec '26)
$66.92 /cwt
▼ $0.90 on the week
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Crude Oil (Nov '26)
$101.40 /bbl
▲ $9.55 on the week
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Tork's Picks
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Bitcoin
$81,524 USD
▼ $1,041 on the week
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D.R. Horton
$139.39 /share
▲ $4.51 on the week
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This isn't financial advice. I'm just a farmer with an opinion.
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Tork's Take
Every grain slid, with beans down 30 3/4 cents, while crude jumped $9.55 to over $101 a barrel, so check your fuel bill before you check the screen. Cattle added $1.30 and hogs gave back 90 cents. D.R. Horton gained $4.51 in the same week builders said they cannot find the hands.
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One line from a guest is still rattling around in my head. Neil Koch told us a country song about taking your chance came on at his office desk three times a day, until he figured there might be a point to it. He took the hint, and he runs the Dig Drive DIY channel now.
The route there was long. He was a farmhand at 14, riding his four-wheeler to the job. Then heavy equipment out of high school, a Sunday milk route, a teaching degree he never used, ten years installing auto steer on tractors and ten more as an agronomist. A clip of a buddy loading a bulldozer onto a truck got millions of views before Neil ever planned a channel.
“You're only given so many chances of doing something like this.” |
What gets me is how he describes the risk. He had a good job working for a friend four miles from home, and the channel was already paying, so he says there was not much risk in leaving. Every stop on that list built a skill the next one used, and by the time he bet on himself he had already built the floor.
What is the thing you keep saying you will get to someday? Hit reply and tell me. I read every one.
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Four things that caught our eye
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Rural hospitals say 46 million people are at risk of losing accessAn American Hospital Association report out October 14 says more than 40 percent of rural hospitals are losing money and more than 150 have closed since 2010. It puts the planned Medicaid cuts at $137 billion in rural spending. Out here, a closed ER means a long drive after a farm accident. |
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| 02 |
Iowa soybeans are about half as harvested as normalUSDA's October 13 crop progress report has Iowa beans 31 percent out against a five-year average of 59 percent. Nationally corn is 33 percent harvested, 6 points behind. After that wet September, every dry day this week counts. |
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| 03 |
A Family Dollar in a town of under 800 closed its doorsThe Gladbrook, Iowa store opened in April 2023 and shut October 10, the Times Republican reported October 15. Dollar Tree sold the Family Dollar chain to private equity in 2025, and at least 350 stores have closed since. The independent grocer downtown is still open. |
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| 04 |
USDA wants states to rethink wolf managementOn October 12 Secretary Rollins urged states to review wolf policies and work with ranchers. It follows a September order giving Interior 90 days to decide on delisting gray and Mexican wolves. A former trapper called it a distraction, since wolves are already delisted in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. |
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Barn Talk Trivia
Think you know your stuff?
Land gets bought, rented and enrolled by the acre, but few people can say what one actually is. How many square feet are in one acre?
| A. 36,000 square feet |
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B. 40,000 square feet |
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| C. 43,560 square feet |
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D. 50,000 square feet |
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Did You Know?
About 1 in 5 Americans, roughly 60 million people, lived in a rural area in the 2020 Census. The Census Bureau says the small rise from 2010 came mostly from raising the urban cutoff from 2,500 to 5,000 people, not from anyone moving out.
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Word of the Week
| BACKFILL |
Soil put back into a trench or around a foundation or pipe once the work underneath is done. It goes in and gets packed in layers, because dirt dumped in one pass settles later and takes the slab or the driveway down with it. |
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Enrollment for 2026 ARC and PLC is open, so call your FSA office this week and book the appointment.
We'll see you in the barn.
Sawyer & Tork
Hosts, Barn Talk · joinbarntalk.com
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Read online · © 2026 Barn Talk · joinbarntalk.com · This week's episode: #EP222
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